高级检索

    基于多模型集成与SHAP解释的秦巴山区滑坡易发性评价研究

    Landslide susceptibility assessment in the qinba mountains based on multi-model integration and SHAP interpretation

    • 摘要: 滑坡是最常见且危害性巨大的地质灾害之一,其空间分布具有显著的区域性与复杂性。为提高滑坡易发性区划的精度与可解释性,本文以安康市县河镇滑坡数据为基础,选取斜坡结构、斜坡类型、地貌、平面曲率、剖面曲率、坡向、坡度、高程、道路缓冲区、河流缓冲区等10类评价因子,采用随机森林(RF)、极端梯度提升(XGBoost)、支持向量机(SVM)和轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)4种机器学习模型,开展滑坡易发性评价。通过AUC、Accuracy、Precision、Recall、F1-Score、MCC等指标对模型性能进行评估,结合滑坡易发性分区的面积占比与滑坡点数占比分析模型合理性,利用SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)模型揭示评价因子的影响机制。结果表明:RF模型性能最优(AUC=0.8413),其划定的极高易发性区仅占全区面积的6.79%,却包含了47.17%的历史滑坡点,具有显著的分区效率;道路缓冲区是影响滑坡易发性的关键因子,平面曲率与剖面曲率呈显著负相关。本研究可为区域滑坡防治规划提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Landslides are among the most frequent and destructive geological hazards, characterized by significant spatial heterogeneity and complexity. Aiming to enhance the accuracy and interpretability of Landslide Susceptibility Mapping, this study, based on landslide data from Xianhe Town, Ankang City, selected ten evaluation factors, including slope structure, slope type, geomorphology, plan curvature, profile curvature, aspect, slope, elevation, road buffer zone, and river buffer zone. Four Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), were employed to evaluate landslide susceptibility. Model performance was systematically assessed using metrics such as AUC, Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-Score, and MCC. Furthermore, the rationality of the models was validated by analyzing the distribution of historical landslides within different susceptibility zones. The SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) approach were integrated to unveil the underlying influence mechanisms of the conditioning factors. The results indicate that the RF model yielded the optimal performance (AUC=0.8413). The very high susceptibility zone delineated by this model accounts for only 6.79% of the total area but captures 47.17% of historical landslides, demonstrating exceptional zoning efficiency. The SHAP analysis identifies the road buffer zone is a critical factor controlling landslide susceptibility. Additionally, a negative correlation was observed between plan curvature and profile curvature. This study provides a scientific basis for regional landslide prevention and spatial planning.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回