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    基于传统方法与机器学习耦合的成矿预测模型研究

    A metallogenic prediction model coupled with traditional methods and machine learning

    • 摘要: 成矿预测作为矿产资源勘查与评价的核心环节,随着大数据与机器学习技术的快速发展,正逐步向定量化、智能化方向演进。为解决单一成矿预测模型难以兼顾精度与可解释性的问题,本文系统研究证据权法、模糊证据权法2种传统统计方法以及随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)2种机器学习算法的基本原理、建模流程、适用特性,引入ROC曲线、AUC值、Kappa系数等精度评价指标,构建“传统方法-机器学习”耦合的多源信息融合成矿预测模型,并以山西某煤炭矿区为研究区开展实证验证。研究表明,传统证据权法可解释性强,但非线性拟合能力有一定的局限性;模糊证据权法在模糊化处理的基础上提升了不确定性信息的适配性,预测精度较传统证据权法提升了5%~10%;随机森林(RF)与支持向量机(SVM)在处理高维非线性地质数据方面精度更优,但存在“黑箱”特性;而基于传统方法和机器学习构建的耦合模型实现了各方法优势的有机集成。本文通过构建1:1正负样本平衡集,并采用空间缓冲区回避策略选取非矿样本,结合网格搜索完成模型参数优化,最终对研究区962个网格单元(含48个已知矿点与48个推断无矿点)进行验证,结果显示耦合模型预测精度达90.1%、AUC值为0.91、Kappa系数为0.75,预测效果显著优于单一模型。多方法融合构建协同预测体系,可有效提升成矿预测可靠性,为复杂地质条件下的矿产勘查提供技术支撑,也为建立多方法融合的数学地质预测框架奠定理论基础。

       

      Abstract: Metallogenic prediction,a core component of mineral resource exploration and evaluation,is gradually evolving toward quantification and intelligence,driven by the rapid development of big data and machine learning technologies.To address the difficulty that a single metallogenic prediction model strugglest to balance accuracy and interpretability,this paper systematically reviews the basic principles,modeling workflows and applicability of two traditional statistical methods,the weight of evidence(WoE)and the fuzzy weight of evidence(fuzzy WoE)) as well as two machine learning algorithms,random forest(RF) and support vector machine(SVM).By introducing accuracy evaluation metrics such as ROC curve,AUC value and Kappa coefficient,a multi-source information fusion metallogenic prediction model coupled with traditional methods-machine learning is constructed,and an empirical verification is carried out by taking a coal mining area in Shanxi Province as the study area.The results indicate that the traditional WoE method offers strong interpretability but has limited nonlinear fitting ability;the fuzzy WoE method improves the adaptability to uncertain information through fuzzification processing,and its prediction accuracy is 5%~10% higher than that of the traditional weight of evidence method;RF and SVM achieve higher accuracy in processing high-dimensional nonlinear geological data but exhibit a "black box" characteristic.In contrast,the coupled model,constructed on the basis of traditional methods and machine learning realizes the organic integration of the advantages of various methods.In this paper,a 1:1 balanced set of positive and negative samples was established,and a spatial buffer avoidance strategy was adopted to select non-mineral samples.Model parameters were optimized by means of grid search,and verification was ultimately conducted on 962 grid units in the study area,including 48 known mineral sites and 48 inferred non-mineral sites.The results show that the coupled model reaches a prediction accuracy of 90.1%,an AUC value of 0.91 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.75,and its prediction performance is significantly superior to that of single models.The construction of a collaborative prediction system through multi-method fusion can effectively improves the reliability of mineralization prediction,provides technical support for mineral exploration under complex geological conditions,and lays a theoretical foundation for establishing a multi-method integrated mathematical geological prediction framework.

       

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